TORIES SAY LABOUR IMMIGRATION CHANGES COULD COST £5.2BN A YEAR

The Conservative Party said Labour's changes to immigration policy could cost taxpayers £5.2 billion a year, according to its own analysis. It said almost 450,000 migrants granted permanent residency by 2030 could go on to claim Universal Credit, based on current rates. The warning follows a decision by Shabana Mahmood to soften planned immigration measures after pressure from Cabinet ministers and more than 100 Labour MPs. Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately said: "Our country cannot afford the ballooning benefits bill. People who come to the UK should be contributing, not drawing benefits."

Home Office forecasts suggest 1.4 million migrants will secure settlement in the UK by 2030, with the Conservatives estimating 450,000 of them could claim Universal Credit. Conservative analysis found nearly one in three settled non-EU migrants already receive Universal Credit, with the number up by almost 83,000 since June 2024. The £5.2 billion figure is a Conservative Party projection based on existing claim rates, rather than an official government estimate. Mahmood also allowed almost 300,000 foreign care workers and their families to keep a five-year route to settlement, and dropped a plan requiring migrants to wait until citizenship before claiming benefits.

Whately said Indefinite Leave to Remain and Limited Leave to Remain would no longer give automatic access to Universal Credit and sickness benefits under Conservative plans. "This will save billions and there's a principle at stake here too: British citizenship matters. We are not a cash machine for the world," she said. The Conservatives said the changes would ensure new arrivals contribute to the welfare system before drawing from it.