NCSC WARNS AI-POWERED MALWARE LIKELY TO HIT UK INFRASTRUCTURE BY 2028

The National Cyber Security Centre, part of GCHQ, says it is "highly likely" that AI-powered malware will be used in a ransomware attack on the UK's critical infrastructure by 2028. The warning appears in the NCSC's annual review and a separate assessment of AI's likely effect on cyber threats over the next two years. Critical national infrastructure spans energy, transport, health and finance, including power stations, airports and hospitals. "It is … highly likely that between now and 2028, AI-powered malware will have been used in a ransomware attack on UK CNI," the NCSC said.

Ransomware attacks typically involve hackers gaining access to a victim's systems, encrypting files and demanding a cryptocurrency payment to restore access and return stolen data. The NCSC said AI is expected to help attackers scout targets, find network weaknesses and write malicious code. Past UK ransomware victims include Royal Mail, the outsourcing firm Capita and several councils. Russia and China are expected to start using AI "routinely" in cyber-attacks, the NCSC said, adding that China "has likely played a role" in supplying AI tools already being abused by attackers.

In a pessimistic scenario for 2028, the NCSC said wider AI adoption could increase the frequency and sophistication of cyberattacks worldwide while making them harder to attribute. It also raised the possibility of an autonomous attacker beyond human control, saying it is "a realistic possibility such an entity could self-replicate and conduct cyberattacks at will, with no apparent motivation or restraint." Last month, the government urged people in Britain to stockpile bottled water and food to prepare for emergencies, including cyber incidents. The NCSC said it is also examining how AI could strengthen its defences.