STUDY PROJECTS RISE IN DISABILITY LINKED TO CIRRHOSIS AND HEART FAILURE

Researchers presenting findings at UEG Week 2026 projected a rise by 2050 in disability linked to alcohol-related cirrhosis complicated by heart failure. Their model estimates increases from 2023 levels of about 65% in the United States, 50% in Central Europe and 67% in Eastern Europe. It projects a 19% decline in Western Europe over the same period. The researchers based their forecasts on Global Burden of Disease data covering 1990 to 2023. The projections describe possible outcomes, rather than confirmed future changes.

The study measured years lived with disability, which records time spent living with ill health rather than deaths. According to the researchers, the rate rose between 1990 and 2023 in every region they examined. They calculated increases of 82.9% in Central Europe and 74.7% in Eastern Europe. The corresponding rises were 38.5% in the United States and 28.6% in Western Europe. Western Europe had the highest rate throughout that period, according to the study.

The researchers found that people aged 70 and over had disability rates 10 to 16 times those of people aged 15 to 49 across the four regions. They also recorded higher rates among men than women in each region. The ratio of male to female rates ranged from 1.86 in Eastern Europe to 3.27 in Central Europe. The World Health Organisation says its European Region has the highest alcohol consumption globally. It links alcohol to more than 200 diseases and health conditions, including cirrhosis and cardiovascular disease.