US HEATING OIL PRICES SEEN RISING 34% THIS WINTER, SAYS EIA

American households that heat their homes with oil are expected to pay an average of $5.26 a gallon this winter, a rise of 34% on last winter, according to the US Energy Information Administration's annual Winter Fuels Outlook released on Tuesday. The agency also forecasts a warmer winter, which it says may reduce how much fuel households use. Taking both factors together, the EIA projects that the average household heating with oil will spend $2,115 from November through March, about 21% more than last winter. Andy Lipow, president of the Houston-based consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, said customers are likely to face sharp increases in cost when delivery companies fill their tanks ahead of colder weather.

Lipow attributed the rise to an unusually tight global market for distillate fuels, the category that includes both heating oil and diesel. He pointed to refinery disruptions in Russia and the Middle East, along with reduced fuel exports from China, as factors constraining global supply and pushing prices higher. The EIA's figures show the impact is concentrated in America's Northeast, where oil heating is more common. Some analysts cited in the outlook expect distillate prices to remain elevated through 2027.

Households that rely on other fuels are forecast to see lower bills, according to the EIA. Homes heated primarily with natural gas are expected to spend an average of $640 this winter, a fall of 9% on last year, while those using propane are projected to spend $1,246, down 3%. The EIA's outlook covers the full winter heating season from November through March. The figures represent the agency's own projections and are subject to revision as weather and supply conditions develop over the season.