YOUGOV POLL PUTS REFORM UK IN THIRD PLACE BEHIND LABOUR, TORIES

YouGov's latest seat-projection poll puts Reform UK on just 123 seats in a general election held now, down from first place to third. The poll puts Labour on course for 241 seats, the most of any party, with the Conservatives on 130. YouGov said the figures point to a hung parliament, with Labour needing support from the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party to govern. It also suggested Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman, who left the Conservatives for Reform UK, would lose their seats back to their former party. The polling organisation described the findings as a setback for Nigel Farage.

Previous YouGov modelling had predicted Reform UK would win 311 seats, against 144 for Labour and 45 for the Conservatives. The latest figures represent a reversal, with Labour now clearly ahead. Separate YouGov tracking this week recorded Reform UK's support down two points to 21 per cent, its weakest showing in two years and level with the Conservatives. Separate analysis suggested more voters are willing to vote tactically to stop Reform UK winning, particularly in favour of Labour or Conservative candidates.

Patrick English, head of elections at YouGov, said Reform UK and the Conservatives have no route to a combined majority. He said Labour, while short of a majority alone, has several options to build what he called a coalition of the left with smaller parties. English said the left in Britain is more fragmented than the right in party numbers, but its combined vote share is larger and converts more efficiently into seats. The projections mark one of the clearest reversals yet for Reform UK, which had led equivalent YouGov polling for much of the past year.