CLIMATE CHANGE INTENSIFYING EL NIÑO EVENTS, STUDY FINDS

Human-caused global warming is making El Niño events substantially stronger than they were before industrial times, according to research published in Science. Scientists analysed chemical compositions in coral fossils from the Galápagos Islands dating back 1,000 years to establish the link. The study, led by Julia Cole at the University of Michigan, found that El Niño events over the past four decades have become nearly 40% stronger than those in the preindustrial era. Cole stated that the strength of El Niño changes in parallel with global temperature warming, and that recent strong El Niño episodes are "not normal in the context of the last thousand years".

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that takes place every two to seven years, when waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean heat up and disrupt weather patterns globally. A powerful El Niño event currently developing is expected to peak later this year and has been informally termed a "Godzilla" event. Forecasters have indicated that the 2026 to 2027 El Niño could be a record-breaking event. The impacts of El Niño periods include disruption to global temperatures and rainfall, and studies have linked the events to droughts, floods, forest fires, famine and civil conflicts in tropical regions.

The research establishes a two-way relationship between El Niño and climate change: whilst El Niño amplifies global warming, global warming itself intensifies El Niño events when they occur. Cole said the findings indicate that strong El Niño events of the last 40 years represent a departure from patterns observed prior to industrial times, with consequences for climate hazards particularly affecting populations that have contributed little to causing climate change.