MET OFFICE WARNS OF MOST INTENSE EL NINO IN OVER CENTURY

The Met Office has predicted that this year's El Niño event will be the strongest recorded in more than a century, with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific expected to rise more than 3 degrees Celsius above average. Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, described the event as "unprecedented" and told the BBC that he had "never seen an El Niño signal this intense" in forecasts. The forecaster characterised the predicted temperature rise as "unheard-of in modern climate records". The Met Office issued its warning on Friday.

El Niño is triggered when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean rise unusually high, influencing global weather patterns. Typically, El Niño causes sea surface temperatures to rise between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius; current forecasts predict record values exceeding 3 degrees Celsius in the coming months. Temperatures in the region are currently running approximately 2.6 degrees Celsius above a rolling 30-year average, according to the Climate Brink dashboard. Scaife emphasised that these represent "long-term, persistent conditions" rather than short-term weather forecasts.

The Met Office anticipates the event will trigger severe droughts in South America and the West Pacific, alongside increased rainfall and storminess in the United Kingdom around November. Governments worldwide are already confronting extreme weather this year: wildfires have burned more than 200,000 hectares in Indonesia and across southwestern Europe, displacing at least 325,000 people in Spain and France, whilst other countries face severe droughts. The forecasters warned that El Niño's effects on global weather patterns will drive risks of drought, high temperatures, intense rainfall and other extreme weather, with serious implications for global food security.