NASA'S PUNCH MISSION PREDICTS SOLAR STORMS WITHIN HALF HOUR

NASA's Polarimeter to Unify the Corona and Heliosphere (PUNCH) mission has demonstrated the ability to forecast solar storms with an accuracy of within half an hour, according to initial testing. The four-satellite constellation, launched in March 2025, analysed a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on 31 May 2025 to test its forecasting capabilities. Scientists fed continuous imagery from the satellites into a computer model that tracked the CME's edges, speed and shape over a 12-hour period. The model predicted the resulting solar storm would reach Earth within an error margin of 30 minutes.

Current forecasting methods have an error margin of approximately five hours, substantially less precise than PUNCH's performance. The improvement stems from PUNCH's capacity to track the full journey of a CME from the sun to Earth, whereas previous instruments could only monitor one-fifth of that path. The satellites capture images every four minutes, providing detailed continuous data of coronal mass ejections as they travel through space. Craig DeForest, principal investigator for PUNCH at Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado, described the result as unexpected in its effectiveness.

Solar storms occur when material from CMEs reaches Earth's atmosphere and magnetic field, potentially causing geomagnetic storms that disrupt radio communications, power grids and satellites. Improved forecast accuracy could allow authorities to better prepare for and mitigate these effects. The PUNCH team presented their results as an initial proof of concept in a paper currently undergoing review for publication in the Space Weather journal. The mission continues to monitor the sun around the clock.