WEATHER FORECASTS PROJECT 38C TEMPERATURES IN LATE JULY

Weather forecasting models have projected temperatures reaching as high as 38C across England in late July, potentially surpassing the hottest day recorded in 2026 to date. The Global Forecast System model indicates temperatures will rise to 33C on 27 July, climb to 35C on 28 July, and peak at 38C on 29 July across western, central and eastern England. According to the GFS model, as many as 15 counties could reach 38C on that date, including Lincolnshire, Leicestershire, Northamptonshire, Cambridgeshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, Gloucestershire, Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire and Berkshire. The current highest temperature recorded in 2026 stands at 37.7C.

The projected heat represents the fourth heatwave to affect the UK this summer. Temperature anomaly maps for 29 July show England and Wales shaded in dark red, indicating conditions significantly above the seasonal average. The Met Office stated on 19 July that it is too soon to confirm whether heatwave conditions will extend beyond the next ten days. However, the Met Office forecast for late July indicates more "above average" conditions are possible during that period. Scientists at the National Climate Information Centre have noted that the UK recorded as many 30C days in 2026 as occurred in 1976, and observed that temperatures once considered extreme are becoming routine.

The Met Office forecast for the period from 22 to 31 July indicates dry conditions on Friday for most areas, with northern and northwestern regions experiencing cloudier skies and occasional patchy rain or drizzle. More unsettled weather with rain at times is expected from the weekend into the start of the following week, particularly across northern parts of the UK. On Merseyside, temperatures are expected to reach around 32C according to current GFS projections.